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Salient. Victoria University Student Newspaper. Vol 37, No. 16. July 10, 1974
What could have Happened..
What could have Happened...
Upon hearing of the arrest of Bill Andersen and the widespread controversy it caused the Salient politics bureau went into deep research as to the likely outcomes. While events have now made the predictions somewhat unlikely, they may still be of interest as pointing to directions New Zealand politics could take.
| 1) | A quick settlement, leaving some people doubting Labour's commitment to law 'n order, but leaving the party unscathed. The actual event, almost a sell-out to the courts and Dromgoole, was not predicted. The staff of the bureau are now participating in self-criticism for this omission. |
| 2) | A bitter fight between the Government and the unions, leading to an eventual union vitory. Various sections of the party would split to the right (such as Martyn Finlay) and some seals now held by rightish Labourites would fall to socialist challengers. Other Labour votes could well be split by socialist candidates. |
| 3) | A similar fight, with a union defeat. The mass of the Parliamentary party would remain stable (and even less distinguishable from the Nats), but there would be a large revolt by the union section of the party This would win several seats, and also help National to win a couple more over alternative 2. |
| 1) | Labour 4 5 seats, National 42. |
| 2) | Labour 37 seats. National 46, various socialists 3, independent 1 (Dallas, West Coast). |
| 3) | Labour 26 seats, National 48, socialists 12, independent 1. |
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In any case, the experience of the struggle of alternatives 2 and 3 would show to many people the futility of expecting truly socialist measures from a reformist Labour Government. The splits envisaged in the Labour Party would have to come from outside the Parliamentary party as the 'left-wingers' in Parliament are far too much in awe of Kirk and far too entwined to reformism to ever step out of line.
For those interested, we include a partial breakdown of the seat results.
Various socialists (2) Henderson. Lyttleton, Petone, (3) Avon, Chch Cent, Dunedin Cent, Grey Lynn, Heretunga, Hutt, Island Bay, Lyttleton, Napier, New Lynn, Otahuhu, Petone Independent (2&3) West Coast.